repackaged article into "The Train Wreck and China"
thought of you when I did so
mainly because I found a nice graphic of a train locomotive
added a stern paragraph about upcoming trade war with China
which could deteriorate into a worse conflict
got a phone call from carpenter buddy in Philly
he disputes some claims about plywood prices
his experience is of stable prices (could be regional, unsure)
gold-eagle.com
an excerpt:
A major driving force overshadows the situation. The major impetus is historic advancement made by China, and their growth story. From to copper to iron ore to nickel to cement to steel to lumber to soybeans to grains to crude oil and distillates, China is competing and bidding up prices for the world supplies. Give it a few years, and the USA will be at odds with China in a much more hostile fashion. Current developments remind history students of Japan and USA engaged in industrial competition 80 years ago. The conflict resulted in war. The current situation is far more dangerous, since China holds significant USTBonds in reserve. The bargaining chips will be their bond holdings, market access, consumer demand, Taiwan embrace, cheap labor, huge standing army, versus our food cartel, technology transfer, sophisticated military, and consumer demand. Japan will perhaps forego the US market for the Chinese market, all in time. Few can see that China will demand and receive a seat on the geopolitical stage. In five years, look for them to covet the oil supply in the Middle East, and make serious moves to secure that supply. |
