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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Lane3 who wrote (50654)6/17/2004 3:16:43 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) of 793953
 
Don't forget that there is risk in action as well as inaction..

Of course, but like bad foundations and bad teeth, Saddam was destined to become a larger problem as time passed.

There is a dynamic that has received very little attention in august forum, namely, the fact that the era of cheap oil is coming to a close. No one knows exactly when the price of oil will rise significantly because of its increasing scarcity but no one can deny that it would have taken place during Saddam's and his sons' natural lifetimes.

This rise in the price of oil is absolutely, positively destined to create instability in the ME, if only because of the options if would have given Saddam. It would have been madness--IMO--to allow Saddam or his sons remain in control of Iraq under those circumstances. I don't think I have to paint by the numbers with respect to this but I do mention these points: (1) the increased profits would have enrichened Saddam & Co., (2) arms not otherwise available to him could have been purchased a lot more readily, including possibly nukes on the black market, (3) nations without oil--mostly European but also Asian--would have had no apetite for a choice between containment and a steady supply of oil, and (4) Saddam's reach and power, and therefore his capacity for mischief, would have been significantly increased as the price of oil rose.
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