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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 302.84+2.0%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (15810)6/18/2004 12:04:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95515
 
Gottfried, Thanks for pointing out the mid-1999 comparison to the recent performance beginning in the middle of last year. Right now, we could be going into a "shelf" mode, just as the situation unfolded in 1999 which started in 1998. The Bookings table below can be used to look at the "fine grained detail" of the 2 periods.

-	                      Bookings
-	 YR	 YR	 YR	 YR	 YR	 YR	 YR
-	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Month	(M)	(M)	(M)	(M)	(M)	(M)	(M)
JAN	1363	 997	2227	1854	 645	 739	1226
FEB	1233	1029	2302	1611	 737	 761	1316
MAR	1123	1257	2547	1197	 836	 777	1379
APR	1102	1405	2716	 721	 996	 757	1582
MAY	1107	1514	2778	 723	1105	 724	1577
JUN	 933	1561	2859	 731	1171	 722
JUL	 718	1531	2902	 769	1182	 707
AUG	 572	1565	2984	 715	1017	 732
SEP	 481	1511	2888	 614	 832	 779
OCT	 638	1610	2993	 644	 775	 871
NOV	 767	1695	2707	 589	 777	 923
DEC	 883	1908	2372	 629	 827	1181
TOTAL  10920   17581   32274   10798   10899	9673	7080


From the table, the up cycle began in 98 with the Sept low of 481. The monthly rise continued into Jun 99 where a "shelf" formed thru Sep 99 in the "1500+" range - then bookings began to rise again continuing on into 2000.

The present up cycle began in 03 with the Jul low of 707. The monthly rise has continued to Apr, and now May, in the 1500+ range. If we hold in that range thru the summer(which certainly seems possible), growth could continue in the fall as it did in the fall of 99.

We will have to wait and find out how the scenario unfolds.

Don
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