Hey Apollo,
I'll take a listen. To me, the more immediate and important decision is being made by Sprint. Sprint is said to be weighing whether to go high speed via EV-DO or high speed via Flarion's OFDM. I think EV-DO is much more specific to a handset form and that OFDM, of any type, will require more processing power, and more battery power. At present even 3G can really start to heat up a handset, much less OFDM. Therefore, even if OFDM offers higher speeds (which it does), that in a handset form EV-DO has better product elements and therefore will be the choice of present carriers who focus on a handset form.
By 2008 perhaps handset power management and processing power will have advanced sufficiently that this product element advantage of EV-DO as it relates to the handset form will be diminished, thereby creating the opportunity for Flarion to strongly attack the handset market. However, this is speculative at best.
By this time, Flarion will have to disrupt an installed base of 10s of millions, legacy expenditures that are still being depreciated, and whatever improvements that EV-DO or EV-DV will have made by that time.
Thereby, certainly OFDM needs to be watched, however, it appears to be no different than any other speculative disruption. As the TFM states, wait for actual disruption, and it is awfully difficult to disrupt an established standard. It needs to be multiple times better and less expensive.
Therefore, I will be watching with bated breath as to Sprint's choice. Will it embed itself with EV-DO and its upgrade paths, or will it go directly with OFDM.
Given the handset form that is dominant, I'm thinking OFDM is not the best fit for Sprint. Nextel, on the other hand, is not as handset form dependent (to my understanding). They have a much more business orientated customer base as a % of their business, and therefore can sell much more into the non-handset form business (ie, laptops and similar computing devices vs. just the cellular phone). And therefore, OFDM may be a better value offering to Nextel than to a Sprint or a Verizon. But if Nextel goes EV-DO, then the U.S. dominance of QCOM is practically insured.
But that is my perspective. Verizon EV-DO, Cingular going W-CDMA, Sprint, if it goes EV-DO, practically locks up the U.S. and OFDM in 2008-2014 will have to disrupt the entrenched standard, and as Gorilla followers we understand the tremendous challenge they will face in attempting to do so. If Nextel goes EV-DO I think the game is overwith in the U.S.
Tinker |
