Hi quehubo; Re: "Do you see any indication that we would ever leave Iraq? My bet is we will be in Iraq in force for longer than we have been in Korea, or until we are not concerned about oil supply security from the Persian Gulf."
These things take time. A year ago, talk was that we'd be setting up permanent bases in Iraq. Now talk has shifted to the question of whether or not the Iraqis will ask us to leave. That's quite a shift in just one year.
As far as abandoning the place, we're already setting up the deals to get us out of places like Falloujah. Those deals are with groups that the Administration swore they'd never deal with (i.e. Baathists and Islamic fundamentalists).
The Administration hasn't even asked for an increase in the size of the US Army. The Senate and House voted to increase the numbers, but the figures are so minuscule as to put to the lie any claim that the US is somehow getting ready to take over Saudi Arabia's oil production, LOL. Here's the numbers (bear in MIND that Saudi Arabia is as populous as Iraq and considerably more radical in religious fervor):
Senate votes to add 20,000 troops to Army
CNN, June 17, 2004
Defying the Bush administration, the Senate voted overwhelmingly Thursday to add 20,000 troops to an Army stretched thin by the war in Iraq and other commitments around the world.
...
The House version of the defense bill, approved last month, would add 30,000 Army soldiers and 9,000 Marines over three years.
...
cnn.com
As I said before the war, the size of a pacification force suitable for Iraq was at least 240,000. Now that there's a full blown insurgency (complete with safe zones and insurgent governments) running, the pacification force would have to be much larger, maybe 400,000. We have about 130,000 over there, so we're around 250,000 short. Invading Saudi Arabia makes it about 500,000 short. Of course, after we invade Saudi Arabia, that will tend to destabilize other Arab oil producers and our problem would further magnify.
The end result is that a 20 or 40,000 US troop increase (which the Administration DOESN'T WANT), is nowhere near enough to support even remaining in Iraq, much less further adventures in Saudi Arabia, and it's arrival three years from now is TOO LATE to help in Iraq, or possibly Saudi Arabia.
We just don't have the will.
If they bring back the draft, then there could be a chance, but I doubt they do that.
You keep going on and on about how there isn't any way we can get by on less oil consumption, but I see SUVs with one passenger clogging up the freeway every time I get on it.
-- Carl |
