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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: westpacific who wrote (15531)	6/19/2004 11:09:47 AM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Hi westpacific. That's a curious prediction, that Moore's Law is "in demise". I hadn't heard that angle before. However, if Saudi Arabia and Shell can overstate oil reserves, and companies can overstate earnings, it is certainly possible that the tech industry could overhype technology growth prospects. One tech industry I follow quite closely is broadband wireless. With OFDM-based WiMAX systems coming into production in 2005, and mobile WiMAX following likely in 2006/2007, I look for some very disruptive change in the mobile computing & telecom area. However, this again has the potential to be very deflationary to incumbent telcos, as their legacy infrastructure and investment (especially in analog telco & 3G investment) must effectively be written down. 3G in particular, to my thinking, will not have a sufficient period of adequate future cash flows to justify much current and future investment, and will fall victim to the true wireless broadband revolution promised by OFDM-based 4G. Anyway, thanks for the article. Glenn

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