Tight race in some key states could give Kerry an advantage
Eric Black, Star Tribune
June 20, 2004 POLB0620
If the presidential race stays close, and only a couple of states change columns from the last election, John Kerry may hold a subtle and seldom-mentioned Electoral College advantage. And this is it:
Of the eight states considered most likely to be nail-biters on election night, the two biggest prizes by far are Florida and Ohio, both of which gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 (and, if you recall, Bush needed pretty much every electoral vote he got).
So what?
So, if Kerry manages to win either Florida or Ohio, Bush would have to practically sweep the rest of the battleground states to win an electoral majority, that's what.
Here are what political guru Charlie Cook recently described as "the eight states teetering closest to the edge," who carried them in 2000, and their newly reapportioned electoral vote allotment for 2004:
• Florida: Bush, 27.
• Ohio: Bush, 20.
• Missouri: Bush, 11.
• Minnesota: Gore, 10.
• Wisconsin: Gore, 10.
• Iowa: Gore, 7.
• New Mexico: Gore, 5.
• New Hampshire: Bush, 4.
If Kerry carries Florida, Bush needs to win the three biggest swing states that Gore carried in 2000 just to hold even. If Kerry carries Florida and Ohio, Bush would have to sweep all the rest of the states on this list and pick up some more states that went for Gore last time.
The most recent Zogby poll of battleground states, published June 7, showed Bush leading by 2.8 percentage points in Ohio and Kerry leading by 1.6 points in Florida.
The potential flaw in this arithmetic is the list of states. These eight states have been on every list of swing states all year. But many larger lists include Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) and Michigan (17), both of which Gore carried, which makes them potential Bush pick-ups. The Zogby poll showed Kerry ahead by 6.6 points in Pennsylvania and by 4.0 in Michigan.
Pew Poll
A poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that between June 3-13, interest in the Iraq war had dropped markedly compared with late April/early May, that optimism about how the situation was going was up 11 percentage points, and that Bush's approval rating was up four points to 48 percent. But all of that gain was measured during the days immediately after the death of former President Ronald Reagan.
In a horse-race poll, Pew found the electorate divided 48 percent for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry.
Missed vote
Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney called on John Kerry to resign his Senate seat, arguing that the Democrat's missed votes have cost the state money.
"He would have been the deciding vote to allow unemployment benefits to continue for 70,000 unemployed Massachusetts citizens," Romney said. "By him not being there our unemployment insurance fund is going to get charged $75 million."
A Kerry spokesman blamed Republicans for blocking the federal extension of benefits.
"If the governor really cared about getting it done he could pick up the phone and call up his candidate George Bush and have him get it done," said Kerry campaign spokesman Michael Meehan. "The Republicans could get it done in a nanosecond if they decided to do it."
The May 11 vote would have extended federal unemployment benefits. Democrats tried to attach the benefit to a corporate tax bill. On a 59-40 vote in the GOP-controlled Senate, the effort fell just shy of the 60 votes that were needed.
Kerry, campaigning in Kentucky, was the only senator who missed the vote.
Eric Black is at eblack@startribune.com. |
