TLindt, I congratulate you on your perfect timing and great entry point on INTU. I bought at an "excessive price" because I thought that Intuit would be able to parley their dominance in financial software on the desktop to recurring revenue from banks by acting as a middleman between bank customers running Quicken and wanting to conduct online banking transactions. What was wrong with this idea? A couple of things, first of all, banks hate Intuit and would rather spend a ton of cash on developing other alternatives rather than let INTU come between them and their customers. Also, Intuit has jumped on the "internet is the future" bandwagon. Maybe a good idea and the wave of the future, but for a lot of people the internet has about as much relavance to them and their financial affairs as the backside of the moon, esp old geezers with lots of cash.
I think we should also take a long hard look at the M-word (Microsoft). There is a very real possibility that MS Money will slowly (or maybe even quickly) ruin Intuit's shrinkwrap business, and I kinda suspect that MSFT would very much like to do a lot of the things that Intuit has set out to do.
Next, here is a quote from some link that appears around this thread somewhere: (A quick aside, I would like to put this next section in italic font like I have seen around this site, could someone clue me in on what to do?)
"The third is Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU), a company that provides personal finance and business software. Intuit is taking several steps to convert itself from a shrink-wrap software producer to an electronic commerce firm. Using a network of contacts, it is positioning itself as a low-cost insurance and mutual fund distributor."
OK, now has anyone else noticed that there are lots of people, organizations, etc. selling these very things already? I do not deny the possibility that everyone that sees the Excite site will become mesmerized with the possibility of buying insurance from Intuit instead of the guy that they sit next to at their son's Little League game. Occasionally, big changes occur in the way people buy stuff like insurance, but I think it is a crapshoot do count heavily on this.
In short, Intuit is in an extremly difficult product transition, they are hunting around for something to sell, Microsoft lurks around every corner, competition in the commerce areas targeted is already intense and will be even more so with other firms attempting the very thing that Intuit is attempting, and, aside from selling Quicken and TurboTax, I think that Intuit management has a poor track record in executing on their stated plans and acting in the best interest of stockholders. I have made more money on a company that sells tampons than I have from Intuit.
Mucho luck, all.
Al |
