Not many doubt the chances of Michael Moore's entertaining and provocative film, Fahrenheit 9/11, which opens in New York in two theatres on June 23, of becoming a hit. The point is whether the documentary, featuring Michael Moore, which freely incorporates fictional elements, will zoom into the top five films of the week list. Its theatre count is expected to go beyond 500 on Friday, June 25.
Given the nature of the film and Moore's outrageous persona, it isn't surprising that a full page advertisement in The New York Times and many other largely circulated publications showed a doctored picture of a beaming Moore and Bush shaking hands. "What controversy?" asked the advertisement.
Fahrenheit 9/11 arrives in theatres with a $10 million advertising budget -- three times more than what was spent on Moore's previous Bowling For Columbine.
Documentary films have indeed found a place on the top 10 list. Recently, for instance, Super Size Me was on the list for two weeks.
But given the huge controversy accompanying the latest Moore film and the strong reviews it has received from major American publications following its debut at the Cannes Film Festival, it is expected to open with a $10 million three-day gross.
No other film this year has generated as much attention as Fahrenheit 9/11, except Mel Gibson's The Passion Of The Christ, which was shunned by major distributors. The latter went on to earn about $380 million in North America and $220 million abroad. Many Hollywood experts expect Fahrenheit 9/11 to make about $90 million worldwide, which is $30 million more than the collections of his earlier Bowling For Columbine.
Though Move America Forward, a conservative group formed last month, is trying to block the film's release, no one expects it to suffer at the box office. "Michael Moore has the right to free speech," MAF chairman Howard Kaloogian told Daily Variety. "But so do millions of Americans who find his anti-military propaganda and attacks on our troops offensive."
Fahrenheit 9/11 was made for about $6.5 million. It fires strong broadsides against the Bush presidency and its war against Iraq. The film could have a substantial expansion immediately after its release. Eventually, the film could play in over 1,200 theatres. According to the distributors -- IFC and Lions Gate -- they bought it when Miramax, a division of Walt Disney, was forbidden by the parent company not to release it because of its polemical nature.
Bowling For Columbine, which also raised questions about Moore's selective use of facts, myths and interpretations, was an Oscar-winning hit. Its reputation is certainly overshadowed by his latest work. Even the harshest critics agree: Fahrenheit 9/11 is gripping and moving.
The documentary received a 20-minute standing ovation at Cannes. At its American premiere, Fahrenheit 9/11, which has been embraced by Hollywood heavyweights, including actor Leonardo DiCaprio, received a robust five-minute long ovation.
Among the early reviewers, Mary Corliss in Time Magazine wrote that it "should engage audiences of all political persuasions."
The New York Times' A O Scott called the film "scorching". He added that it is "the best film Moore has made so far, a powerful and passionate expression of outraged patriotism."
Michael Wilmington, the critic for Chicago Tribune, thought it is Moore's "toughest, gutsiest, funniest picture yet."
Moore has directed half a dozen documentaries since he made his debut in 1989 with Roger And Me. Roger And Me took fierce look at General Motors abandoning much of its factories in Flint, Michigan, which is also Moore's hometown.
By the weekend, Moore could see his newest film give him yet another hit. The paperback version of his book Stupid White Men, which was a national bestseller for over a year, has just been released. The book that assails politicians and business leaders and the "nation of idiots" they have created, was the third on last week's New York Times paperback bestsellers' list.
Don't be surprised if it gets a big boost from the huge attention Moore's film is getting.
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