Released: June 22, 2004:President Has Two Good Weeks;Pulls Ahead in Battleground States, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals
In a two-week stretch that included more positive economic news and mixed reports from the troubled Middle East, President Bush continued to improve his standing among Americans in key states, wresting the lead in the race for the White House from Democratic Challenger John Kerry of Massachusetts, the latest Zogby Interactive poll shows.
The poll, conducted June 14-19, shows Mr. Bush would win 285 Electoral College votes, compared to 253 for Mr. Kerry.
It marks the first time in the three polling periods conducted so far that Mr. Bush has taken the lead in the race, gaining 43 votes in the last two weeks and 67 in the last month. But races in many states are still so close as to leave the result unclear.
Mr. Bush has taken the lead, however slim, in four states in which he was trailing two weeks ago (Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and West Virginia), three of which he won four years ago. Having lost control of those states, Mr. Kerry gained the lead in just one state he was losing two weeks ago (Arkansas).
Zogby Interactive’s Electoral College Race So Far:
6/20
6/6
5/23
President George W. Bush
285
242
218
MA Sen. John Kerry
253
296
320
The Zogby Interactive Battleground States poll assumes that, in the 34 states not included in the poll, the candidate of the party who won the state in the 2000 presidential election will again win it in 2004. Those Electoral College figures have been added into the totals included in this chart.
Developments in the two-week stretch since the last Zogby Interactive polling was conducted in the 16 key battleground states were as unusual as any so far. The campaign for the White House was put on ice for about half of the period, as former President Ronald Reagan was laid to rest. In regal ceremonies from coast to coast, he was hailed as one of the most important American leaders in history.
Feted as a staunch defender of freedom in a dangerous world, and as the author of an economic policy that brought the nation back to prosperity from the brink of ruin, his name was promoted as one who should grace everything from Mount Rushmore to the ten dollar bill.
That week, Democrat John Kerry and Republican President George Bush both suspended official campaign activities out of respect, but while Mr. Kerry slipped out of public view – except for a brief appearance at the Reagan library to pay a final tribute – Mr. Bush used his incumbency to retain a spot in the national media limelight. He remained at the center of news coverage during the G-8 leadership summit at Sea Island, Georgia, then delivered a heartfelt eulogy to Mr. Reagan at the National Cathedral, which was carried to a wide national television audience.
Pollster John Zogby: “This is so incredibly close but, make no mistake about it, the President has gained on Senator Kerry. Mr. Bush has had a solid two weeks from the good will generated by the memorial to Ronald Reagan to the reminder of how ugly the war on terrorism can be with the horrific beheading of an American hostage. Since Mr. Kerry has not established his national security credentials, Mr. Bush will gain on that issue as Al Qaeda’s actions outrage the entire world.
“But this is all so close. Remember we are not likely to see huge bounces for either candidate for a while not only because the country is so closely competitive but also because virtually all of these states remain so evenly divided culturally, ideologically, and by party identification.
“Undeniably, the President has made impressive gains while the Kerry campaign steadily plods along. All the more reason why Mr. Kerry’s Vice-Presidential choice and his performance at the Democratic National Convention will be so vital to his future.
“At the same time, the past two weeks do show that events can move voters in one direction or the other. Again, the shifts may not be large – but their impact can be seismic as we look at the hypothetical electoral votes.” |
