A CLOSE-UP VIEW OF THE ZOGBY REPORT OF JUNE 22
The June 22 Zogby Report has to be seen as very good news for Bush and very bad news for Kerry.
Based on the latest polling, and looking at the Electoral Race projections, in one month Bush has gone from 218 to 285, while Kerry has gone from 320 to 253.
This represents a HUGH swing in voter sentiment in one month.
As Zogby noted, Bush has taken the lead, gaining 43 electoral votes in the last two weeks and a whopping 67 in the last month.
Bush has taken the lead in Florida, Michigan, Nevada and West Virginia. Kerry has gained the lead in only one state he was losing two weeks ago, Arkansas.
True, the races in many states are still very close and could swing in either direction depending on events. But the trend appears to be swinging in Bush's favor and Bush still has his best campaigning ahead of him. His momentum in the international arena is now moving in his favor. If conditions continue to improve in Iraq between now and November (which is highly likely), Kerry will have a really tough row to hoe. And with his tools (campaign arguments) being rapidly ripped from his hands and shoved down his throat, Kerry may have to start digging with his hands.
We can only hope that the trends will continue, that positive events in Iraq will be kept on track, and that whatever October surprises may be in store will be the kind that undergird the Bush and Republican causes.
Pollster John Zogby: "This is so incredibly close but, make no mistake about it, the President has gained on Senator Kerry. Mr. Bush has had a solid two weeks from the good will generated by the memorial to Ronald Reagan to the reminder of how ugly the war on terrorism can be with the horrific beheading of an American hostage. Since Mr. Kerry has not established his national security credentials, Mr. Bush will gain on that issue as Al Qaeda's actions outrage the entire world." |
