These poll results are right on the margin of the number needed to keep Chavez from stealing the election. Will he? TWT.
Venezuela Chavez Would Lose Recall Vote, Poll Finds (Update1)
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez would lose a recall vote scheduled for Aug. 15, according to a poll taken last month by independent Datanalisis polling agency.
Interviews of 1,300 Venezuelans, done in person between May 10 and May 19 in eight regions, found 57.4 percent of people who said they were likely to vote want Chavez removed, while 42.6 percent would vote for him to stay as president. The poll has a 2.7 percent margin of error.
The poll indicates that about 65 percent of the country's 12.5 million registered voters plan to vote, giving Chavez 3.44 million votes and the opposition 4.64 million, more than the 3.76 million required to oust Chavez, Datanalisis said.
``Chavez isn't completely out of the game, but he's in trouble,'' said Datanalisis analyst Luis Leon in a meeting with the foreign press. ``If the vote happens legally, Chavez should lose.''
The National Electoral Council said earlier this month that opposition groups collect the 2.44 million valid signatures required to trigger a referendum on Chavez. The 49-year-old former army lieutenant colonel has survived a two-day failed coup in 2002 and a two-month opposition-led national strike that ended in February 2003.
Datanalisis said two weeks before the December 1998 presidential election that polls showed Chavez would win with 54 percent of the vote against 38 percent for Henrique Salas Romer. Chavez won by a 57 percent to 38 percent margin.
Before Chavez won re-election in 2000 by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, Datanalisis said polls showed Chavez would win with 54 percent of the vote against 33 percent for Francisco Arias.
A Datanalisis poll in March found that 59 percent would vote for Chavez to be recalled, while 41 percent would vote for him to stay in office.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Peter Wilson in Caracas pewilson@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Laura Zelenko at lzelenko@bloomberg.net. |
