Geopolitical Diary: Tuesday, June 22, 2004
Jun 23, 2004
stratfor.biz
Kim Sun Il, a South Korean hostage in Iraq, was beheaded by his al Qaeda-linked captors June 22. The beheading follows those of Americans Paul Johnson in Saudi Arabia on June 18 and Nicholas Berg in Iraq on May 11. Two other hostages have been killed recently in Iraq -- Lebanese Hussein Ali Alyan, who was killed June 11 in what was described as a "grisly" manner (with some reports that his throat was slit or he was beheaded), and Italian contractor Fabrizio Quattrocchi, whose April 15 execution was so "brutal" that Al Jazeera refused to air the videotape of it (there is speculation he was shot and then beheaded).
The use of beheading in hostage situations is a growing trend among al Qaeda-linked groups in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In addition to the incidents mentioned above, during the May 29 militant raid in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, for example, several foreigners had their throats cut by the attackers -- incidents that were later discussed in detail by the attackers on the Internet.
The message that such methods sends is one of fear and hopelessness for the kidnap victims -- and for their respective governments. This is in part the reason for using such tactics. In the cases of Berg, Johnson and Kim, all three of whom appeared on videotape in orange jumpsuits similar to those worn by detainees at Guantanamo Bay, the militants issued specific demands for the release of the hostages. For Berg, they called for the release of prisoners in Abu Ghraib prison; for Johnson, it was the release of al Qaeda prisoners in Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of U.S. and other Western workers in the kingdom; and for Kim it was the reversal of South Korea's decision to deploy approximately 3,000 additional troops to Iraq.
The militants knew their demands would not be met, but they were targeting the general population with their message. Al Qaeda and its militant allies are attempting a variation on the Madrid attack -- which they saw as a viable way of stirring a people against their government. Support for the war in Iraq is waning in the United States, something of which al Qaeda and the U.S. administration are very keenly aware. While Washington seeks to minimize military casualties in Iraq between now and the November election, al Qaeda is seeking to increase the number -- or at least the notoriety -- of such killings in an effort to further split the U.S. population from the administration.
While the chances of success are limited in the United States, the prospects are much better in South Korea. Anti-American sentiments in South Korea are already at one of their cyclical high points, playing off of the U.S. troop redeployment, the North Korean nuclear crisis talks and the war in Iraq, which remains rather unpopular. Seoul's decision to deploy additional troops to Iraq -- enough to soon make South Korean troops the third largest contingent in the country behind the United States and Britain -- has little support among the general population, and what support there was began slipping away when news of Kim's abduction emerged.
While the South Korean government remains committed to the troop deployment -- albeit less as a way to appease Washington than a way to establish a more independent position in the Middle East -- the popular support that swelled for President Roh Moo Hyun during his impeachment proceedings is declining. Even the ruling Uri Party is fracturing over the deployment, further weakening Roh.
But anti-U.S. sentiments are being exploited by progressive factions in South Korea even more than anti-Roh sentiments, and much of the anger is being directed against U.S. President George W. Bush and the U.S. government. The blame for the kidnapping and death are being laid at U.S. feet. While this is an emotional response, it affects the tenor of relations between the two nations.
At a time when nuclear talks with North Korea are once again breaking down before they start due to differences between the United States and South Korea, and at a time when South Koreans are questioning the motives of the U.S. force restructuring in South Korea, the killing of Kim is resonating across the Peninsula. This, for al Qaeda, will be seen as a tactical victory in the ongoing international campaign. While U.S.-South Korean relations will not be irrevocably damaged by the incident, the South Korean government will find it difficult in the short term to balance domestic pressures and the need to redefine a clear and cooperative relationship with the United States.
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