This guy thinks Moore's film will swing more support towards Nader than Bush because it'll get a lot more play in big metropolitan areas, already very liberal. The "Woody Allen" audience. (That's assuming of course that it will influence anyone, except maybe a few people on the fence.)
'Fahrenheit 9/11' could boil Democrats
James P. Pinkerton
Newsday.com
June 24, 2004
'Fahrenheit 9/11" is a prosecution brief.
The Michael Moore documentary, which opens tomorrow, arranges a set of facts - or almost facts - directed against George W. Bush and sets them out for the jury, the American people. But the irony might be that while Moore seeks to "convict" Bush - that is, defeat him at the polls - the unintended consequence might be to "acquit" Bush instead.
Like a veteran prosecutor's opening statement, the movie is a fast-moving blur of allegations, punctuated by emotional-string-pulling and even a little humor. The film argues that Bush was dangerously neglectful of the threat posed by Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida prior to 9/11 - and that's just in the first few minutes.
Indeed, the film's most powerful moments come early on, as we watch footage of Bush sitting in an elementary school classroom in Florida, reading a children's book - and then continuing to read for agonizing minutes after he gets word of the World Trade Center attacks. Moore-as-D.A. provides the voice-over, steering us toward the conclusion that the look on Bush's face reveals both stupidity and guilt.
Moore, who won an Oscar for his 2002 documentary "Bowling for Columbine," knows his craft. He knows that an audience can be led to conclude that a facial expression signifies one thing - when, in fact, it might connote something completely different, or nothing at all.
In addition, Moore is not above a fact-twist or two. The film seems to allege that the Bush administration allowed more than 100 Saudis, including members of bin Laden's extended family, to leave the U.S. right after 9/11. Yet it fails to note that the dubious decision to let the Saudis leave was made by former counter-terrorism czar Richard Clarke - who appears on camera, talking about other topics, as a witness for Moore's prosecution.
One's first reaction is that Bush needs a good defense lawyer, someone to rebut falsehoods and rearrange the facts. For example, while it is true that the Carlyle Group, a Washington-based investment company, has major holdings in defense firms that might be expected to benefit from an Iraq war, it is also true that one of the few weapons systems that the Bush administration has sought to kill is the Crusader artillery system, made by a Carlyle-controlled company.
But maybe Bush doesn't really need to worry about this movie. And here's why: If Bush and the Iraq war are this bad, why vote for John Kerry? After all, in 2002, Kerry voted with Bush and the Republicans - and against a majority of congressional Democrats - to support the war.
Try as he might, Moore will not get his R-rated film before the mass of American moviegoers. Instead, it will play heavily in liberal areas - places that are already likely to go strongly for Kerry. Bush voters will be few and far between.
Here's the rub: The more left-leaning the locale, the more likely that third-party candidate Ralph Nader will be a force there, too.
Indeed, as public opinion has turned against the war, support for Kerry has increased, but so has support for Nader. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Kerry besting Bush by four points. But Nader, who strongly opposed the war all along and proposes an immediate American pullout, is gaining, too. In recent months he has surged from asterisk levels to 6 percent. Almost all of those votes come out of Kerry's hide.
And as Democrats learned to their sorrow in 2000, it's possible for the Democratic candidate to win the popular vote nationwide and yet lose the Electoral College, and thus the presidency.
So if Moore's film is a hit at the box office, it's more likely to turn Kerry voters into Nader voters than it is to turn Bush voters into Kerry voters. That probably isn't Moore's intention, but the problem with zealous prosecutors is that once they get their blood up for the big confrontation, it's hard to get them to cool down, even if that would have been best for their case.
James P. Pinkerton's e-mail ad- dress is pinkerto@ix.netcom.com.
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