Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4867)	8/22/1997 2:16:00 AM
From: nonzeroa	of 9285

I still think DDIM is a good short here. You're probably right regarding announced contracts and hype, however, 3rd quarter is fish or cut bait for ARDES 2K. I definitely want a sizable short position in place for the announcement that ARDES 2K sales are negligible. One definitely runs the risk that the company will obfuscate the issue and either claim deferred sales or some other new sizzle, but I think you risk missing the big move by delaying your short too long. Also look at the way the players are shifting. We started with Soros truly being long more than 5% of the company and Cruttendon Roth being the primary promoter. Soros is gone, CR sold the stock they had warrants on, and we now have Essex Investment Management as the big long and Gilford Securities as the promoter (replete with outrageous 1999 EPS forecasts). Not to say there isn't a greater fool waiting in the wings, but we seem to be moving along the chain... Throw in aggressive accounting practices, resignations of two officers (and apparent difficulty in getting a new CFO to sign on), and I'll take my licks now to wait for the Jimmy Cliff effect-"The harder they come, the harder they fall".

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