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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who started this subject	6/24/2004 5:09:17 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) of 793916

The "Jello" situation. Election-predicting tools point both ways Depending on which criteria you use, either Bush or Kerry is a lock to win in November By Susan Page USA TODAY WASHINGTON -- The winner of this year's presidential election is already obvious. It's Republican George W. Bush. Unless it's Democrat John Kerry. Of six measurements for predicting the outcome of presidential contests, all with excellent track records, each signals a clear outcome in November. The problem is, they're pointing in different directions. A formula by a Yale University economist that has correctly predicted five of the last six elections shows President Bush winning in the biggest landslide since Ronald Reagan's 49-state victory in 1984. It says Bush is a shoo-in. But Bush's job-approval rating has slid below 50%; not since Harry Truman in 1948 has a president in that territory won the election. By this standard, Bush is guaranteed to lose. The rally-'round-the-flag reaction to terrorism, the politics of key states and other factors carry such conflicting clues that this election is impossible to predict. Analysts say the crystal balls have been clouded by an evenly divided and polarized electorate, the impact of the war in Iraq and the public's pessimism despite an improving economy. The result: Each campaign has ammunition to argue that victory is a sure thing and that its opponent is doomed. Ray Fair, the Yale economist who has been tinkering for a quarter-century on a formula to predict the vote, says, ''Something new may be going on that means . . . the equation is not that good any more.'' Former Republican national chairman Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. calls it ''the most confusing election of any I've ever seen.''

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