Conf Call
It's late, so this will be brief.
Management was pretty conservative with comments, but some analysts were able to squeeze out some juice (IMO). And BTW, there were probably 10+ analysts from major firms asking - some non-GLFDs, no doubt from the Amgen analyst ranks, as this is seen as recovery from their Neupogen/Epogen slowdown and Regeneron flop.
Net, it was very upbeat. Great endorsement for GLFD's efforts. In particular, the Monkey trial results of GPI-1046 will be released in several weeks. These tests determined both the neuroprotective and neuroregenerative effects of neuroimmunophilin GPI-1046. Since Amgen was privy to these results, my strong HUNCH is that these results, especially the neuroregenerative results, were very strong - likely leading to an NDA and clinical trials pretty soon. Much more to say, especially the hints of generic "cyto"-protective effects. And this is only concerning the FKBP neuroimmunophilins ligands.
Dollars:
This year- $35MM for starters. Additional $4.5MM ($13.5MM/year for 3 years) And the first "milestone" payment of $56MM when Amgen chooses to either pursue dopaminergic (Parkinsons) or cholinergic (Alzheimers)
therapies, which I would expect inside 6 months. I would also expect the second "initiation" milestone payment of $42MM within 12 months for the second therapy pursuit. So this COULD add $7.4/share ($137.5MM, if as per above / 18.6M shares outstanding) over the next 12 months.
The balance of the milestone payments (approx $300MM) would (likely) be at NDAs, maybe phase 3 trial advancements and of course, approval, on 7 to 10 drugs.
But remember other exciting products that this cash infusion will give Synder, et al., the ability to pursue (eg., presynaptic glutamate inhibitors) independently, as well as non-disclosed royalty payments on the joint compounds
I suspect many analysts will up their ratings, and of course their numbers, Friday AM and in the coming days. And we'll likely pick up some additional coverage.
More as time permits. (Chart looks pretty darn good too.) Also see Friday's DJ/WSJ article which quotes several analysts comments from today.
Steve |
