INTEL- Money Making Option Ideas for Small Investors Message Board

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Technology Stocks : INTEL- Money Making Option Ideas for Small Investors

INTC 41.14

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2:44 PM EDT

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote ()	8/22/1997 4:20:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	of 201

To: +J.T. (7300 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Aug 21 1997 2:59AM EST Reply #7335 of 7506 If yields goes down to 6% DOW moves upto8950- 9270 but question is the yields? If the inflation is headed lower I will see the gap between Real and Nominal yield to narrow, already the gap btw Real and Nominal is highest in US second only to UK all other OECD countries have a much smaller gap, US and UK larger gaps are reflective of future inflationary undercurrents, you take this out of the equation and you may see yields at 5.75% because the premium now being charged will have to narrow. I think Three numbers are the key and you will see increased volatilty always before these three numbers- PPI is not an advance indicator of inflation it is a lagging indicator so will notice that last March when FED tightened PPI was falling, so I like AG approach and look for following numbers: 1: The employment cost index- rose .8% after a rise of .6% in first quarter, market is not priced for any further surprises on this critical index although wage inflation is not a threat but some of thse numbers can bring a surprise. 2: US NAPM prices INDEX has a close relationship with Fed funds notice sice 1994 NAPM increases from 60 to 85 were matched by 6 Fed funds increase likewise on a downward NAPM from 85 to 40 we saw March 95 andNov- Jan 95 96 to rate cuts I think a NAPM below 55 will be extremely bullish and NAPM above 60 will for certain warrant a rate hike, I heard AG makes his decisions sitting in his bath tub and I assure you that he will notch it higher within 2 months if we get NAPM HIGHER THAN 59-60. 3: One other number you need to watch carefully is the rising NAPM with a sharp upward move in the journal of Commerce Inflation Gauge I need to see a reversal of this gauge otherwise last time Fed hike came on heels of this number around 108-9, now if we see this trend continuing we are going to be hit by a rate hike. I think my job is to look forward we are trading every day with an upward bias however markets discount forward activity therefore I keep my horizon little extended I felt that it may for some taxing thing but I think in a years time you all will know and appreciate that we need to look forward n the stock market, I am trying to highlight out of volumes of numbers significance of just three and if you find three above heading down I rest assure you that a strong non-inflationary growth can bring miracles on the upside however I would like to see the non-farm employment to point towards a solid growth, declining numbers with rising unemployment will not be good for corporate profits raise the spectre of deflation. Some other time- sorry for taking so much of your time JT- but I love to talk and you are productively provocative bavy- take care and ask your broker why does he feel rates are headind down even G's broker think we are heading to 9000 but I think you all will be pleased to atleast watch that trend if we know what actually is fanning it!

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