In analyzing the last three quarters of TPRO 10Q's, and then projecting out the income and balance sheets for the next four quarters, I came up with the following:
SUMMARY: 4 qtrs ending 6/97: EPS 10.8 cents; fully diluted .08 cents. I am projecting a .058 EPS for 6/97.
Based on my projection for 6/97, the stock should achieve an $8-9 price range in the September-October months, but should fall back to a $3-6 range after the 9/97 10Q is filed. (This would explain Jenkins bailing out of 45% of his holdings, because his next trading window is most likely after the 9/97 10Q is filed). After January 1998, the price should then accelerate to $11-18 by August, 1998, if everything goes according to plan. That is, of course, if the market stays at its current levels or beyond. Here is my analysis: (for this post, for 4 qtrs ending 6/97)
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Actual(A)/Est(E):----------A------------A-------------A-----------E
Quarter:-----------------9/96----------12/96---------3/97--------6/97
Revs (mills):------------7.967---------8.137--------11.183-----15.090
Gross Profit:------------2.885---------2.539---------4.134------5.734
Expenses:----------------2.804---------2.623---------3.641------4.979
Inc. Before Tax:----------.081---------(.084)---------.493-------.755
Net (EPS):-----------------.01----------(.01)----------.05-------.058
Fully Diluted:-------------.01----------(.01)----------.04-------.040
Avg shrs out:-------------6.639---------7.796---------10.750------13.0
This also assumes a Current ratio of 1.04, and LTD of about 4.0-4.5 for 6/97, which drops down to 2.0 in 9/97.
I assumed for the 6/97 period, that revs would show a 35% increase (last qtr they were 37.4% from the prior qtr); gross profit would grow to 38%, up from 36.9% in the prior period; expenses would be relatively flat at 33% instead of the 32.6% from prior period; and that avg shares outstanding as of 6/30/97 was about 13 mill. I think these assumptions are reasonable, but my EPS may be a bit high, cause I gave the company the benefit of the doubt in a few areas.
My next post will deal with 9/97-6/98 projections, and the underlying assumptions.
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