Slacker / C2, Re: RBC report of CDMA semi component weakness-
1. “TSMC is a foundry....I would assume that they do not fall under the term SAT which is where they attribute the comments about CDMA weakness. “<<<<
It’s my understanding that TSMC along with IBM are the two foundries supporting Qualcomm’s MSM production and have been requested to and have agreed to provide additional capacity to support increased MSM demand to relieve the allocation problem.
I’m not sure if Qualcomm uses these SAT ( semi assembly and test) companies, but I assume that Q’s MSMs require testing, whether at the foundry or at SATs. I recall that ChipPac was at one time a Qualcomm supplier (packaging and test).
2. “There are all kinds of explanations. Perhaps Qualcomm has moved some of their business to a Chinese company....perhaps the product transition to the MSM6100/MSM6500 has created a momentary blip in sales....or perhaps end market demand has slowed a little bit.”<<<<
The above could all be true, but that would not indicate overall “weakness” in wireless semi-components, “particularly CDMA”, just because a few SAT companies they saw in Taiwan and Singapore apparently indicated they were experiencing such. Should RBC extrapolate “overall weakness in the entire wireless semi components market (including the largest product- Q’s MSM- “particularly CDMA”) from that one data point?
The article discussed the “overall semi market and stressed weakness for CDMA components in 2H04 >>”"Wireless forecasts are weak going into 2H:04: After strong Q1 and Q2 for wireless components, at this point, forecast data from SAT (semiconductor assembly and test) companies for wireless components show weakness in 2H:04, particularly CDMA components."
From the Q’s reports and recent presentations citing extreme strength in CDMA, nothing could be further from the truth in reporting “ weakness in wireless forecasts....particularly CDMA components”. The article stressed CDMA wireless as the only area with the overall semi market as being weak.
By the above, IMO most reading it would infer that there will be weakness in CDMA semi components in 2H04. Since it’s my understanding that CDMA Chipsets represent the largest piece (dollar wise) of the CDMA semi market, IMO most readers take would be that the CDMA chipset market would be experiencing weakness in 2H04. Since Qualcomm is the largest fabless semi and perhaps now the largest wireless component semi (TXN and QCOM were virtually tied at last look), one could naturally infer that this would signify “problems” at the Q.
Inasmuch as the article stressed weakness within “CDMA” from the RBC research, and the Q is CDMA, IMO if there were no weakness in the MSM chipset business that should have been so stated. Perhaps it was in the RBC report, but omitted from the article. Perhaps this RBC report was written by their Semi analyst, and the Q is covered by their Comm Equip analyst and they’re not “working from the same page”.
With the unexpected strength in the CDMA chipset market so far this year, WCDMA ramping in Europe, the Q reiterating this past week strength in virtually all of the CDMA handset markets world wide and expressing no concern that China won’t hit their targets, the EV-DO market ramping, and the second half of the year the strongest to support Christmas season sales, I felt it extremely “strange” to see a report suggesting CDMA “weakness” for 2H04.
You obviously didn’t read it that way and apparently found it “strange” that I did. (gg)
This article today continues to reflect strength in the handset component market >>>.
“China handset makers 'significantly' affected by component shortage – analyst”
forbes.com
3. C2, Re: “Right. There is in effect a self-imposed month-long quiet period before earnings are announced in July.”
I’ve heard that before also, and have also been confused by such. TT presented twice in the past week, the last on June 23 within a month of the next scheduled earnings report .
William Blair 24th Annual Growth Stock Conference
June 23, 2004, 7:30 am (Central)
Presentation by Tony Thornley, President & COO
Webcast Presentation
Presentation Slides - PDF Format, 2.02MB
15th Annual Bear Stearns Technology Conference
June 15, 2004
Presentation by Tony Thornley, President & COO
Webcast Presentation
Presentation Slides - PDF Format, 1.31MB
QUALCOMM Inc. Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2004)
Scheduled to start Wed, Jul 21, 2004, 5:30 pm Eastern |
