Moguls Mantra to the Markets Message Board

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Non-Tech : Moguls Mantra to the Markets

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To: Frederick Langford who wrote (205)	6/28/2004 12:55:44 AM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) of 220

Where I see the rest of the year. The stock volatility index I look at has made a new low, meaning that the market has essentially been going nowhere. 80% of the closes of the S&P 500 this year have been between 1100 and 1150. So, the market has been in a sideways pattern. Volatility has continued to drain out of the market. And the expectations in the options market are for continuing declines in volatility. These low volatility readings are an indication to me of pretty significant investor complacency. And this market has been unable to make much progress in the first half of the year given the favorable earnings environment. Given the huge inflows into equity mutual funds this year, I would question what is going to be the driver of a significant rally in this market in the second half of the year, but I am expecting a big selloff between now and October. A rally from there until eoy is possible. Queston is from how much lower will the mkt rally, and I feel that it will be considerable. Most likly in my opinion we will top out around this range at the end of the year 2004.

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