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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group
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To: Sam Citron who wrote (828)8/22/1997 9:16:00 AM
From: FJB   of 2946
 
RE:(1) ASMLF has perhaps 3 times the stepper market share compared to SVGI and the gap is widening.
(3) Analysts think ASMLF could capture 1/3 of the deep UV market this year.

What we should focus on is DUV market share since this is where ASML and SVGL will compete. Estimates are for both companies to ship 50 to 60 DUV systems over the next year. Nikon claims they will ship 150 to 200 and Canon claims 60, so I am dubious that ASM will capture 1/3 of the market this year. Not to mention, ASML has yet to ship a production step and scan system.

RE:(2) ASMLF is aggressively taking market share from the Japanese as they expand capacity. Reportedly they are targeting 33%, although the time frame is unclear. ASMLF doesn't seem to have as severe capacity constraint that SVGI seems to have (possibly a result of good relationship with lens supplier Carl Zeiss, who promises 80 new lenses this year). Why should AMAT demonstrate a system in its pilot that is reportedly as hard to buy as the Micrascan?

That's what we SVGI longs are betting on. That the SVGL ramp will become a reality instead of a promise. 150-200 step and scan systems next fiscal year would put SVGL in a tenable to strong competitive position vs. other step and scan system vendors. Don't forget these systems sell for $5 to $7 mil.

RE:(4) ASMLF's product has a "workhorse" reputation and supposedly gets 20% greater throughput.

There is no disputing this. ASMLF has great products and a great reputation. SVGL is at a disadvantage here.

Bob

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