zonder,
Sure. There is nothing wrong with guessing possible correlations (between say, demographics and political affiliation) as long as you are clear that it is a guess.
Fortunately (or maybe unfortunately) there are tons of demographics / party affiliation data, and we have to sit through the polling data during the election night reports...
You do realize that this has nothing to do with political affiliation of either parents and children.
I said it was only tangentially related, but still, it is an indication of various character traits or behaviors for which there is a correlation between parents and children. The study I linked showed one example.
Political affiliation is a more complicated issue of personal preference - one parent can be Republican and another can be Democrat. What are the children going to vote, then? Or even if both parents are Republicans, maybe the kid will get out of Ohio for university, move to California, form his political ideas there and vote Democrat all his life.
Besides, is it not true that not everyone votes ONLY Democrat or ONLY Republican throughout their lives?
You are providing good examples of exceptions, but not many why the correlation should be negative. Does it make sense for generations (beyond some rebelious years) to alternate in the party affiliations?
Or, can anyone argue that a woman who has had abortions cannot go on to have five kids when she gets married? How can having had abortions possibly mean a woman will have no kids or less kids than another who had none?
Yes, but 1-2 years of childbearing age are forever lost.
This theory of abortion leading to lower voting base for Democrats is such a target-rich environment that frankly I don't know where to start :-)
I don't think you are understanding this correctly. There are large trends that overwhelm everything else. There are elections when say 20% of Republicans defect their normal affiliation and 5% of Democrats do. But take that election and add 5% Republicans to the turnout (20% of whom will still defect) and the Democrats will still win, but by a slightly lower margin.
Now take a close election, you may get a different result as a result of abortion hypothesis.
Joe |
