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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (8545)7/1/2004 6:11:16 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
<Where does that leave us?
US - very late Autumn but looking like a false Spring>

Don't see how that could be. Autumn would have commodities still deep in bear territory, and bonds and stocks moving in lockstep like the 1980s and 1990s. We (the US) have several commodities that appear to be in new bulls, or at least in positions that would require huge reversals in order to establish new Autumn lows. More importantly, stocks and bonds have parted ways since the beginning of 2000, with stocks falling as bonds rose through 2003, and then stocks rising with falling bonds from then through the present. That's a hallmark of the transition to Winter.

We are clearly 3+ years past the end of Autumn.

As I noted somewhere else earlier, the peak of the debt/GDP ratio in the 1930s experience happened some three years following the stock market peak. That's when Winter really got vicious.

BC
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