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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.19

-0.1%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65717)	7/2/2004 4:00:25 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) of 77400

So Lizzie, how can you possibly think that the U.S. will always require 150K per month jobs growth to stay even? Let me give you an example. If our labor pool is 100 people and we are currently employing 95, then we have 5% unemployment. If next month I have 10 people graduating college and entering my labor pool, but I have 7 retiring, then I need to create 3 new jobs per month to stay even at 95. However, if the baby boomers start to retire, then I may have a situation where 10 people are graduating and 9 people are retiring, meaning that I now only need to create 1 job per month and still stay even. This is exactly what is happening in the next few years. More and more people will start to retire, which will leave a swath of jobs unfilled. It also means that we will no longer need to create net NEW jobs at the rate of 150K per month, because a bunch of old people will be retiring than ever before. So it drops the need to create net new jobs to something like 75K. If I find the article, I'll send it to you, but it makes perfect sense.

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