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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (16158)7/5/2004 11:19:30 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
10% lower US$ and USA becomes competitive? utter nonsense

the US$ is 40% lower versus euro, and 10% lower versus yen,
yet the trade deficit expanded

is this something you missed?

with the trend toward more Chinese mfg, not less,
a lower USDollar will make import costs higher
and until structural changes on a massive scale are made,
the trade deficit will head over $50 billion monthly

the USA must return its mfg base and allow 30-40% bankruptcies of households and large corporations

until then, the trade gap grows and grows and grows and grows and grows and grows
as in perpetually

the April $48.3B trade gap offered a hint, which economists once more misinterpret
that bested the March $46.0B

when the US$ bounces up, the trade gap worsens quickly and badly
as exports are suddenly hurt
when the US$ declines, the trade gap worsens slowly
as imports cost more
import volume overwhelms the paltry export volume

we have no critical mass mfg industrial base
why cant economists (or you) notice that?

/ jim

the US$ declines until the crisis reaches climax
the trade gap will worsen every year
the real problem is Asians will eventually back off on TBonds
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