Henry, My opinion about Lidakol: I cannot say that I am an expert. However, I believe that if Lidakol is approved, it will be one of those proverbial blockbuster drugs. That is why I have followed along with this company for four years. I have read most of the articles published in scientific journals about Lidakol. The pre-clinical results, the animal trials and the first clinical trials all showed clear and convincing results of Lidakol's effectiveness.
To me, the key is that there is a huge, unfilled market with an easy drug to prescribe for that market. There are two ways to make a blockbuster drug. You can produce a high-tech genetically engineered wonder which you sell for thousands of dollars to a (relatively) small number of tens of thousands of patients (e.g., Amgen and EPO), or you can sell a mundane cream for a few dollars to a large portion of the population (compare: antibiotics, birth control pills, Seldane, etc.). If there are 50 million people who have at least one cold sore per year in the U.S. alone, that is a very large potential market.
Furthermore, I believe that Lidakol will immediately stand out. My understanding is that the only currently available competition in Zovirax/acyclovir. I have previously compared Lidakol and Zovirax in several posts up above. I would only add that acyclovir has been around for 20 years! If it were a viable therapy, there wouldn't be 50 million Americans still miserable from 100-150 million cold sores every year. Zovirax Cream (which Lidak says is not available in the U.S.) has sales of $100 million in Europe. That has not deterred Yamanouchi Europe, b.v., from pursuing the clinical development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of Lidakol over there. That suggests to me (1) that the market in the U.S. is an absolute minimum of $100 million and (2) that Yamanouchi obviously believes that there is a large market still unfilled even where Zovirax cream is available.
If I were Lidak I would take my advertising right to the people: A commercial on Seinfeld, a couple of spots on MTV-- "Do you always seem to get a cold sore right before an important business presentation or a big date? Ask your doctor about Lidakol. It cuts the healing time in half, reduces the pain and sometimes stops the cold sore before it ever becomes visible to other people." And the best part about this marketing campaign is that it will probably be true! That's more than we can say about most cold remedies.
So assuming that they get FDA approval, I think that Lidakol will be a very big seller.
Michael |
