what the heck, one more time
"I blow them" huh? your claim lacks substance, as in none
you claim
1. recession - slowing consumption substantially - lower imports
2. growth in food commodities with world population growth - more exports
3. less dependency on outside energy - due to recession and due to innovation
4. structural changes in the cost of US labor coupled with a lower USD
you sound like an economist who cannot explain why his past two years of policy has failed, yet advocates more of the same, with some table pounding
excuse me, but how will the trade deficit go down?
if you cannot explain the illogic of your points from 2002 to 2004, how can you now?
1. a recession will work in two ways.. it will slow consumption, but add to the US$ decline.. this will add to the import trade gap on the currency exchange, offset by lower consumption.. unsure that translates to lower trade gap
2. more foodstuff exports, agreed.. I wish we would institute a food cartel to counter the energy cartel.. gotta say though, you overlook the price component issue for food.. as we export more, our prices domestically will continue upward.. this will act as a tax on the economy, and slow us down even more.. hence, more downward pressure on the US$, and higher domestic prices for everything, including all we import
3. less dependency on outside energy?
innovation? whose innovation?
are you kidding?
innovation like Japan's hybrid cars?
fuelcell cars and building generators might come, but later
you miss the natural gas growing imbalance
our natgas import dependence will grow markedly
sorry, but you are 90% off base here
our energy foreign dependence will escalate and become acute
4. structural changes for US labor will take another 50% decline in the US$.. China labor is 5% of ours, India's is 25% of ours, Mexico's is 10% of ours.. keep looking for structural changes in 2007, because they wont even begin until at least then
I repeat
you cannot explain why the trade gap exploded when the US$ dropped 10% vs jyen, and 40% vs euro
your points are more of the same nonsense that economists spouted in 2002
let's drop it
glad your euro put USD worked out
/ jim |
