Stratfor: The Threat to Refineries
stratfor.com
By Fred Burton
U.S. counterterrorism sources were greatly concerned during the July 4
holiday weekend about a terrorist threat to refineries in the Houston area --
specifically in Baytown, Texas. Trusted sources close to the matter said
refineries there may have come under surveillance by Islamist militants
seeking to carry out an attack. According to information supplied to
Stratfor, domestic terrorism alerts were disseminated to police and corporate
security officials, who raised protection levels around their facilities.
Meanwhile, Department of Homeland Security officials believe that one of
Washington state's five refineries might have come under surveillance
recently. The department noted that al Qaeda views critical infrastructure
targets -- particularly businesses involving oil and gas -- as attractive
targets, given their potentially significant effects on the economy, public
health and safety and psychological impacts.
Stratfor long has held the view that refineries likely figure into al Qaeda's
target-selection criteria for those reasons, but pulling off such an attack
in a way that also yields high casualty counts -- another core targeting
criteria, at least for major strikes -- is tactically difficult.
Consider the following cases, all of which were determined to be accidents:
* A 1998 explosion at an oil refinery in Anacortes, Wash. -- one of the
facilities that reportedly came under surveillance recently -- killed five
people.
* A May 25 fire near a chemical supply warehouse in Atlanta, Ga., forced
the evacuation of five square miles and the partial closure of a heavily used
interstate highway, but there were no casualties.
* An explosion on March 31 partially destroyed an oil refinery -- the
country's third-largest -- near Houston, but yielded no injuries.
Considering that most of these facilities are large industrial complexes,
penetrating them in such a way as to detonate explosives in the most
sensitive areas would be difficult -- and even then, militants likely would
be forced to rely on toxic fallout in order to achieve mass casualties over a
large area.
That said, the possibility of a strike against refineries or petrochemical
facilities cannot be entirely ruled out.
In addition to Houston oil facilities, we believe that refineries in Newark
also are a potential target -- in part because al Qaeda has a history of
operating in the New Jersey and New York areas that dates back to the first
World Trade Center bombing in 1993 and Sheikh Omar Abdul-Rahman, also known
as "the Blind Sheikh."
Reports of possible surveillance of oil facilities have surfaced in many
parts of the country -- and whether they originate from credible sources or
panic-stricken security guards and citizens, federal authorities have little
choice but to take every report seriously, at least initially. Given the
large number of industrial targets situated within or very near to major U.S.
cities -- for example, the Houston area, California coast, the Puget Sound
area, cities within the Mississippi Delta and New Jersey -- this has the
potential to create a drag on law enforcement resources.
One case in point: FBI sources have told Stratfor that they are combing back
through their case files and re-interviewing anyone who has been identified
as a militant suspect or "subject of interest" in a terrorism investigation
during the past three years -- obviously a labor-intensive and time-consuming
effort.
Though this could be effective in thwarting some attack plans -- or at least
put militants on notice that they are being watched -- it can do little to
address the issue of greatest concern: sleeper cells.
Our analysis indicates that an operations/militant sleeper cell more than
likely is present in Houston, with another in the New York City or Newark
area. Whether these cells will be called upon to carry out the next terrorist
strike within the domestic United States is not clear, but it certainly is
feasible that a cell could be activated to attack an oil facility in either
Baytown or Newark.
Operationally, it is our assessment that any attack likely would be
choreographed to coincide with additional militant strikes in the Washington,
D.C., area, which is full of symbolic targets. In our view, however, a strike
against the Metro subway or Amtrak's Union Station would be the most easily
mounted and yield the highest casualty counts. |
