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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (9034)7/10/2004 5:19:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
you constantly overlook the factors which led to a widening US trade gap from 2002 to 2004
you make points consistently that fly in the face of forces which are behind the rising trade gap when the US$ fell 40% vs euro and 10% vs yen
that is why

as for WS and DB nonsense on shorterm currency moves,
who gives a shit?
just read the DB report in 4 minutes
found it empty
why dont I slam them?
because they have clear motives
if they want to focus on shorterm moves between 119 and 123, let them
who cares?

I have come to conclude that Europeans are too aware of the continent's stagnating economic potential, and are way way too confident of American powerful economic potential
they thus keep low their expectations of euro runups
(they got the last two years horribly wrong)
I said two years ago the euro would head to 120-130 range
they see the US$ fundamentals as weak and getting worse, but by some miracle the US Economy and financial sector will straighten it out
when the trade gap and current account deficit might actually widen beyond $50 billion monthly
Europeans dont seem to have much better economists than we do WHEN IT COMES TO CURRENCY ANALYSIS

why do I give you a hard time?
because you attempt to analyze
but for some reason choose to avoid the factors I point out, even though I have been mentioning them for a year, and even though you continue to ignore them, and even though they are still at work

you spout nonsense on US currency adjustment and impact
you never address my arguments which have held up for a full year
you never confirm my prediction in late 2002 on widening US trade gap despite
when I ask you questions on my analysis, you bypass answers and go onto some other point

I guess because I expect more from you
something is not right in your approach either with currencys or other posting members
be sure that I find little in what you say of value regarding currencys
you miss mostly everything
but my guess is you are a good guy, fun at the dinner table

/ jim
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