I dont bother with really shorterm currency predictions
such is the province of the gambler and silly person
if you succeed 35% of the time with them, you do well
I stick my neck out all the time
when you do, you look in the wrong direction
I never dismissed your 20% US$ depreciation call
I wonder if you read my posts at all to you
I dismissed your claim that a sizeable US$ decline will have much of any effect on the trade gap or C/A deficit
you see, this is why I dont like to debate you
you dont quote me correctly
you dont address my points
you dont respond to the critical factors
I talk about an abandoned US mfg base, and foreign import dependence which has a monstrous structural imbalance
a lower US$ accompanied a rising US trade gap from 2002 to 2004
you have not explained how that happened, ignore how I explain it, and now misquote me
forget Hewlett Packard
they are NOT NOT NOT NOT central to any relevant argument
nor is HWP central to the solution
focus on cars, car components, stereos, VCR, DVD, laptop PC's, telephones, TV's, photocopiers, cameras, clothing, lamps, vases, refrigerators, washing machines
(basically the things sold in WalMart)
now add crude oil
in two years, our natgas foreign dependence will increase markedly
WE DO NOT MAKE THESE THINGS FOR WHICH WE SPEND BILLIONS
THE USA HAS EXPERIENCED A 20-30 YEAR STRUCTURAL CHANGE
IS ANY OF THIS GETTING THRU TO YOU ?!?!?!?
none of these items will see mfg come back to the USA
UNTIL OUR LABOR COST BASE COMES DOWN 10-FOLD
the US exporters could increase 200% in volume and do almost nothing to offset the rise in imports
ergo even to the dummy, aint gonna happen
so the problem is not fixable, and the US trade deficits continue unabated
even grow as the US$ comes down from capital flows
a lower US$ will make for all these basic and necessity costs to rise
it will increase almost all production costs inside our economy
what I am saying is complex but simple
THE REVERSAL OF THE USDOLLAR BULL IN 1990 DECADE, AND US MFG BASE EXPORT WILL LEAD TO A UNITED STATES ECONOMY DEPRESSION AND USDOLLAR COLLAPSE
our foreign dependence makes corrective reversal impossible
we must suck water that is descending in a vicious whirpool down the drain
you get sidetracked by irrelevances so easily, Haim
you miss the meat and heart of the matter consistently
but as I said, you are probably a great guy and wonderful to have over for dinner
/ jim |
