Rethinking the NKTR and EYET shorts. Not as to fundamentals, but as to timing. Logically, I should be shorting NKTR after PFE files the NDA, as that could cause a celebratory run before the AC throws cold water on it. However, ARDM/Novo could announce something pretty soon about their stopped trial that would impact Exubera. So I'm going to cover half the position for a small gain there. NKTR at $18.20 now, so a 35 cent gain for a few hundred bucks.
EYET's Macugen will get approved. My suspicion is that it's baked into the price, but if uncertainty takes it a few points below my entry, I will cover, then reshort on the AC's approval recommendation, which would send it back up. For EYET, the best time will be after approval, as I think the commercialization of this product is going to be tougher than its bulls believe. Aiming for ~$40 if I can get it before the August AC date.
Hard to guess the bottom on OXGN. It's one I shorted too early (surprise, surprise), so with the bad entry, I shouldn't expect big gains. 30% is OK, and I expect it will find a bottom before bad news comes again. It will always be in the WatchList, but I will cover this now, at $5.07, the current ask.
Cheers, Tuck |
