GV, RE: "With more macro cases like this one, Wall Street's irrelevance is even more probable"
I was of the opposite impression - and actually have a lot of respect for Wall Street's ability to predict macro events. Look at what happened in August of 2000, when WS (Kumar & JJ) accurately guessed the forthcoming downturn based upon their channel checks and macro conditions, meanwhile Silicon Valley was happily continuing on, only to find ourselves hitting a wall (and that sure hurt.)
Having said that, I think those that have "hold" calls are wrong this time, because there are just too many small businesses coming online and recruitment firms reported that companies (mid & large) are planning to hire people this year and one would imagine those new hires will need new notebooks. Of course, in Silicon Valley the hightech job growth was so small last month you could call out the new hires by name, rather than publish the numbers (200 in Info services & 200 in Computers, per SJMN I believe). But everyone senses new positions are coming online. Saturday night was humming with a renewed optimism. People are even having parties again.
I doubt the upgrade cycle has completed yet at the majors.
How far in advance of the start of a recession does WS typically make its call for one? I'm in complete disagreement with their call for another recession, or slow down in Q3 as noted in a post. Then again, hightech does spin on its own axis. At some point, you've just got to run your company based upon what you think, not what WS thinks, otherwise its the tail wagging the dog.
As far as Intel goes, even if Intel's report isn't the greatest tomorrow, I just don't think a person can say it applies to small companies, because there are too many of those coming online in many different spaces (biotech, etc.) Which brings up the question: why would the large software & service companies have a broad setback before the small companies? I thought it's suppose to be the other way around, where small companies are suppose to lead first into a recession then be the first to get out of a recession. So if the large companies are having a setback, then something is out of order here, or doesn't make sense. This is certainly a puzzle.
On another note, I'm curious how Intel's UK sales are going to be.
Regards,
Amy J |
