| It is almost impossible for a Democratic candidate to win without a massive black vote, although the preponderance of the Hispanic vote helps, as well. It is almost impossible for a Republican to win without an overwhelming Evangelical vote, although the ethnic Catholic vote has become more important to secure victory, as well. If blacks start voting their religion, rather than their race, it is unlikely that a Democrat will win for quite sometime. (Most blacks are Evangelical Christians, and poll similarly to their white brethren on social issues). Interestingly, Bush, in recent polls, is almost sure to win if Powell becomes his running mate, precisely by splitting the black vote significantly, while retaining the white vote. |
