First, I think the nearness of their direct competitors is a bit overstated. I don't think anyone is closer to the regulatory hurdles stage -- for a proteomics-based diagnostic test -- than CIPH. Power3, CeMines, Correologic, all have issued PR and posted interesting numbers, as has CIPH, but none are any further along, so far as I know. Threadsters, feel free to school me here.
I can say with more confidence that I haven't seen any proteinchip vendors with any staying power, either. Meanwhile, as I've mentioned, the 2nd generation ProteinChip systems, to be launched soon, are supposed to be robust enough for clinical testing. That's what's needed now. Folks aren't purchasing anymore first generation systems because of this, hence the earnings weakness. Traction from the launch may take some time, but look at AFFX for a recent example of a successful 2nd generation system launch when the company dominates the space (as opposed to mass spec companies that each own slices).
I have to admit that seeing Rich sell 99K shares a few days ago for under $4 is little less than heartening, though he still owns over a million. This may validate Peter's strategy of waiting for another quarter or two. The only upside I see for a while would come from presentations at upcoming conferences. It won't be a lot, but might start the stock of its basing pattern.
Cheers, Tuck (no position yet, but likely to pull the trigger soon) |
