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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (140216)7/14/2004 10:39:13 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I have to say I see your arguments on Sadr's having won something to be strained.

When a party initiates military action with an announced goal (like for example, driving the Americans out of Iraq and replacing the interim government with one more to one's liking), I think it is reasonable to judge the success of that military action in a straight forward manner. Namely, by seeing whether the announced goals were achieved wholly or partially. Clearly, in Sadr's case, they were not achieved even partially. And I would reason that this failure would constitute a loss of face which would likely to weaken him in the future.

Re. Sadr's current legal situation, I see it as being similar to before the rebellion. There's still an indictment by an Iraqi court. And he's still free.

Though, I don't think Sadr was chased by the marines (PS actually the Army's 1st Infantry, I believe) until after he started the rebellion. American authorities have been concentrated on those engaged in ongoing violence not normal law enforcement per se. Ultimately, I would expect the Iraqi government's judicial and law enforcement institutions will be strong enough to see that a resolution of his legal status occurs. It wouldn't surprise me if he ultimately beats the rap. I think a conviction could be gotten only if there are people inside his own movement willing (and able) to testify against him. And such people may be hard to find.
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