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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: ild who wrote (22210)7/15/2004 10:01:40 AM
From: MulhollandDriveRead Replies (3) of 306849
 
With the global labor arbitrage continuing to crimp income generation in the high-wage developed world, asset-driven wealth effects have become an increasingly important factor in the global growth equation. This new source of economic growth has both advantages and risks. The benefits come from unlocking the value that gets embedded in fairly valued assets, and in converting that value into a source of economic growth. The super-liquidity cycle unleashed by deflation-fighting central banks took such a phenomenon to excess. The danger arises when an overvalued asset class becomes vulnerable as such liquidity is withdrawn. That's precisely the point. For global property markets, the balance of risks is now shifting.

this is what i was alluding to yesterday, only i would go further and suggest that even with an accomodative interest rate environment, (which i would consider to still be in play even with "measured" small hikes as opposed to what i would have termed super- accomodative rates as they have been) the limitations on further RE asset appreciation need only look to the world wide labor arbitrage he mentions..

stated simply wages are not keeping pace with the price appreciation in RE (bubble areas) and without real wage growth, i am hard pressed to see by what mechanism RE continues its growth trajectory
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