Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 177.78

-2.2%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Craig Schilling who started this subject	7/15/2004 12:54:12 PM
From: qveauriche	Read Replies (3) of 152472

2004 vs. 2005 EPS. below is a little chart from Yahoo showing how EPS estimates have changed over the past 90 days. EPS Trends Jun-04 Next Qtr CurrentYear Next Year Current Estimate 0.53 0.49 2.06 2.23 7 Days Ago 0.53 0.49 2.06 2.23 30 Days Ago 0.52 0.49 2.05 2.21 60 Days Ago 0.50 0.47 2.01 2.14 90 Days Ago 0.39 0.39 1.76 1.85 Several quarters back, the idea was that '04 would be the transition year for QCOM, '05 being th year that WCDMA takes off in earnest. Overlaying that idea was a fairly widely shared view that growth at QCOM would slow dramatically because of new 1x chip rivals. Now, reality has forced '04 estimates shrply northward, and alot of the gain in '04 has been ev-do growth. The WCDMA powderkeg, while the fuse is lit, has yet to blow. The intersting thing to me, however, is that the '05 estimates have only moved up in an roughly the same amounts as the '04 year is proving out. And this isn't just a 90 day phenomenon. If you looked at this same chart 90 days ago, it would show a similar increase for that 90 day period as well. My point is that the analyst community has been breathtakingly wrong in their estimates of QCOM earnings this year. I doubt there is another large cap out there which is modeled to earn in '04 a sum which would exceed what it was modeled to earn 180 days ago by the same percentage that QCOM now exceeds prior estimates. It appears, however, that analysts are doggedly clinging to their slow growth scenario for QCOM in 05 (presently estimated at roughly 8%). To do so would seem to require a complete reversal of the "transition year theory" though I've heard nothing to suggest that the anticipated WCDMA rollouts would not occur or be delayed. If anyone knows, what is the basis for the current slow-growth hypothesis? Because no one has any business at all holding the stock at these multiples if that view is correct.

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