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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: coferspeculator who wrote (174)7/15/2004 5:12:16 PM
From: coferspeculator  Read Replies (1) of 14340
 
Today the market had an intra-day failure to the upside and closed near the lows of the day with a decreased spread on lower volume, finishing the day in a neutral condition. Today's failure was the result of the meeting of supply.

Continued progress to the downside without the ability of the market to experience an oversold condition continues to indicate that both speculators and investors are sellers. It is expected that if this continues at it's current measured pace that one of two things will occur. In the first instance, supply would try up and a rally would be expected. In the second, an acceleration could occur as prices continue to fall and evidence of preliminary support would be likely. In the latter case, a temporary rally and then further deterioration into a selling climax is probable. This could occur at new lows for the year.

In the first case and the one that seems more likely, a rally will occur and a subsequent test of the lows set before the rally began is possible. Whether this occurs at the lows of the year or at a higher low depends on when demand meets supply or when supply is withdrawn from the market.

The SOW that has been in place for several weeks continues to exert it's presence. Until there is evidence that this is going to change those wishing to consider long positions for any time frame should remain on the sidelines. Any rally from the current position is likely to be primarily short covering.

If there is a substantial increase in volume and spread to the upside then aggressive speculators might consider entry with stocks that have been identified as being stronger than the market and offer enough count for taking a position. Other potential speculators wishing to take long positions should consider waiting for the test process to occur before entering any positions.
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