RealClearPolitics on the Cheney rumor:
STOP THE CHENEY INSANITY: The quickest way for President Bush to move from being the favorite to win reelection to the underdog in this race would be to dump Vice President Cheney. Charlie Cook seems to have restoked the Cheney rumor in his column earlier this week:
While I still expect Vice President Dick Cheney to remain on the Republican ticket, I am beginning to have some doubts about this for the first time this cycle. The dynamics of this race do not look good for President Bush. The political mortality rate for well-known, well-defined incumbents tied at 45 percent is extremely high, even if there are 3 percentage points or so that are likely to go to independent and third party candidates. The mortality rate for incumbents with 48 percent job approval ratings is not much better. While this is almost certainly going to be a very, very close race, I'd rather be John Kerry today than George W. Bush....the president badly needs something to shake this race up, and I can think of just one thing. Cheney may need to watch his back.
Then yesterday the New York Times ran a front page story "Hear the Rumor on Cheney? Capital Buzzes, Denials Aside. In the article Elizabeth Bumiler quotes an unnamed Republican House member who says "watch Cheney" and then another unnamed GOP member of Congress who says Cheney is "increasingly viewed as a political liability." Apparently just acknowledging in the first sentence that the whole story is a "conspiracy theory" and "far-fetched" is all that is necessary to then get front page treatment.
First things first: it's summer time in Washington, Kerry's already picked his VP and a lot of this "buzz" is simply a bored press corps killing time until the Democrat's convention later in July.
On the other hand, much of the dump Cheney buzz does have the intended effect of sowing seeds of doubt among Republicans about the strength of the Bush/Cheney ticket.
Cheney's problem is that he has more or less given the press and his political opponents (which in most cases are one and the same) a free ride in painting a caricature of a dark and secret man who, besides being a warmonger, has as his only goal in life to funnel money to Haliburton and other "big oil" companies.
Because the White House is sensitive (and rightly so) to the other press caricature that Cheney really runs the whole show, they aren't in a position to put him out front and center to defend himself. So all of the noise about Cheney's unfavorable ratings has to be put into context of this unanswered assault on his character week after week for years.
While the Cheney unfavorable ratings are a fact, their impact on the Presidential race will be negligible. In some ways these unfavorables will create an expectation game that will work well for the Bush/Cheney team in the Vice Presidential debate where the beautiful, eloquent trial lawyer is supposed to talk circles around the mean, balding Vice President. Don't be surprised if Cheney wins that debate.
But the VP debate isn't going to decide this election. Contrary to the scuttlebutt that Bush needs to shake up the dynamic of the race, Kerry is the guy who was worried about where the election was heading - which is why he went for the charisma pop with Edwards as opposed to Gephardt or Graham who might have actually helped him win a state that would matter.
While there is still time for the Democrats to build up their bounce from the Edwards pick and the convention, the first round of polling showing the race tied to a 5 point lead for Kerry has got to be a little disappointing to the the Kerry campaign.
Here's my question to all those people who think George W. Bush is in such big trouble: if that is really true, how come all of the betting sites, where real money is changing hands, have the President as the favorite? J. McIntyre |
