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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 177.78-2.2%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Cooters who wrote (134728)7/16/2004 10:33:36 AM
From: Cooters  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Smith Barney is only modeling 35M WCDMA handsets in CY05, well below QCOM's conservative forecast and half of mine. So they are just plain bearish on WCDMA.

Considering "3" is at a run rate of almost 8M/yr with one solid handset and a smattering of junk, and this is the summer of 2004, I cannot understand how they can stick with the 35M number. That is just one carrier, in a couple countries, with one popular handset. I will be surprised if we don't see 25M-30M in the December 2005 quarter alone.

Morgan Stanley actually has a decline in earnings for 2005, based on flat QTL revenue and declining QCT revs. They explain QCT is because of a sharp dropoff in CSM's, I really don't know what kind of ASP decline you would need to see to make QTL flat with QCOM's forecast for overall volume growth, but it would be substantial.

Well, that was when one US carrier was leisurely rolling out EV-DO. Since then, another one has responded and indicated they will make the next move beyond DO Rel0 ASAP. I would certainly expect VZW to respond. So we went from one batch of DO CSM's to FOUR. Nextel would make it SIX. And that is just in one country!

Glad to get that off my chest........
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