Poll: Kerry makes gains in south, tied in Tennessee
Polls show key Kerry gains
By Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff | July 16, 2004
The selection of Southerner John Edwards as his running mate is providing at least a short-term boost to John F. Kerry's presidential candidacy in Tennessee and North Carolina, states generally considered to be beyond the Democrat's reach in November.
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A poll conducted by Zogby International after Kerry introduced the North Carolina senator as his vice presidential pick indicates that the Massachusetts senator was in a flat-out tie with President Bush in Tennessee, with both at 48 percent. A Zogby poll less than a month earlier indicated Bush was leading by 18 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Mason- Dixon/ WRAL-TV poll released yesterday indicated that the Kerry-Edwards ticket was within 3 percentage points of Bush-Cheney in North Carolina, also long considered to be safe territory for the Republicans. Independent polls had indicated that Kerry was trailing Bush in the state by 6 percentage points in May and 7 percentage points in June.
In 2000, Al Gore failed to carry Tennessee, his home state, losing its 11 electoral votes. Bush beat him there by more than 80,000 votes, or 3.9 percent of the total. In North Carolina, Bush thumped Gore, 56 percent to 43 percent.
Kevin A. Madden, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney reelection committee, dismissed the notion that the Democrats are a serious threat in the South, where Bush dominated four years ago.
''We're happy with our organization in the South and our message there," he said. ''Al Gore had an 'A' rating from the [National Rifle Association], a Southern accent, and a national campaign headquarters in Tennessee, and he didn't carry his home state.
''For the Kerry campaign, it's a little ambitious to think that voters there would identify with the first and fourth-most liberal members of the Senate," said Madden, referring to the most recent ratings of the voting records of Kerry and Edwards by National Journal magazine.
Gentry McCreary, spokesman for the Tennessee Democratic Party, said, ''Tennessee's a battleground state, and if the resources are put into this state, it's going to be tight." The Kerry campaign hired a state director recently, but Tennessee is not among the 21 swing states designated with a fully paid staff.
The Zogby poll of 708 likely voters in Tennessee, conducted July 6-10, had a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. Pollster John Zogby said it was ''the most dramatic result" in his most recent survey of 16 battleground states, which indicated some Kerry gains after the Edwards announcement yet close races in every state.
Zogby said that before this poll he had considered dropping Tennessee from his battleground state group and replacing it with North Carolina, even though Tennessee historically has been a swing state in presidential elections. ''The Edwards factor brings it back into play," he said.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, another independent polling firm that conducts 500-voter daily tracking surveys in the presidential race, said: ''If this state is in play or seriously headed toward the Democratic camp, then the Bush campaign is in serious trouble. But I don't see that happening."
But a senior Kerry strategist said the poll may indicate an opportunity for the Democrats to stretch the map, forcing Republicans to expend resources to defend an area thought to be safe.
''Usually what happens is the Republicans lock up their base early and then wrap the noose around the Democrats in the Midwest," said the strategist, who asked not to be named. ''This time it looks like we might be able to turn that around."
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