Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (9409)	7/16/2004 5:13:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Date: Fri Jul 16 2004 14:40 trotsky (frustrtated @SA stocks) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i'd say they represent value here, since trees don't grow to the sky. i.e. the Rand won't go up forever. very likely it's now in the speculative blow-off phase though, so there could be more pain in the short term. also, it's unfortunately likely that when the Rand finally succumbs, gold will also decline. trotsky (frustrated@USD) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved unfortuately there is good reason to expect a rally in the dollar soon. for instance, the hedgers have a very large net short position in the Swiss Franc now - right at the extreme end of the short/long net exposure channel of the past 10 years. of course, sometimes a trend continues for a while in spite of such extreme positioning data - but i take the Swiss Franc CoTs as yet another warning sign w.r.t. gold related investments. note also, throughout the recent rally in XAU/HUI ( excuse for a rally really ) we haven't even had a single really decent up day...which is one of the things we need to dispel the impression that this is just a weak bear bounce. btw. from a technical point of view it does not matter if the 'reason' behind the divergence is the strong Rand or something else.

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