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Russia: Putin Considers Sending Troops to Iraq
July 16, 2004
Summary
Moscow is considering a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, just before the U.S. presidential election. The move would be of enormous benefit to U.S. President George W. Bush and a risky venture for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces his own Islamist insurgency in Chechnya and public opposition to U.S. policy in Iraq. Torn between his desire to support Bush and his need to address domestic concerns, Putin will delay his final decision to the eleventh hour.
Analysis
Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor. The talks are intense, our contacts close to the U.S. State Department say, and the timing is not insignificant. A Russian troop lift to either country before the U.S. presidential election would give U.S. President George W. Bush a powerful boost in the campaign.
Sources close to Russia's Security Council tell Stratfor that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to the request "in principle" and has directed the Russian General Staff to work up a plan by the end of the month. Before making a decision, however, Putin wants to make sure all logistical and international legal questions are resolved -- perhaps with United Nations involvement -- and he will not move without a formal U.S. request. It is a tough decision for Putin, who will carefully weigh the risks and rewards and likely make his decision at the last possible moment.
Stratfor sources in the Russian Energy and Industry Ministry also say the Prime Minister's office has issued a directive to the ministry to prepare a Russian "wish list" for Washington seeking some level of quid pro quo, including steps to return Russian oil companies to Iraq and approval of Russia's joining the World Trade Organization.
If a troop agreement is reached, the Bush administration would enjoy not only a timely spike in the polls during the campaign season, but also the strategic, long-term benefit of having a sizable contingent -- as many as 40,000, Stratfor sources say -- of Russian troops relieve beleaguered American forces and free them up for regional purposes beyond Iraq. Getting a major troop contribution from any country, particularly one that was originally opposed to the war in Iraq, would be a boon for Washington, which is starting to recognize the limits of its unilateral approach. A Russian troop commitment could not only stifle the development of a Paris-Berlin-Moscow alliance against U.S. policy in the Middle East but also could prevent -- over the long term -- the formation of a troika among Russia, China and India to counter U.S. dominance.
And the Russian Army, although certainly not as formidable as it was at the height of Soviet power, is a skillful and resolute ground force seasoned by 10 years of fighting Chechen guerrillas (superb fighters and mentors to Islamist insurgents worldwide). Formations considered for the Russian deployment include three mechanized infantry divisions and one airborne brigade, Russian military sources say. The current general staff scenario has Russian troops spread across Iraq, but Washington would likely want them concentrated in the Sunni Triangle where the insurgency continues to grow. It is not even necessary for the Russian troops to win militarily in Iraq; Washington would not expect that. Tough street fighters, they could effectively tie down and distract Iraqi insurgents while the Americans regroup for strategic missions in the region.
Nevertheless, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, sending Russian troops to Iraq poses far more risk than reward. For one thing, fighting Islamist militants in Iraq would raise Russia's profile as a target for al Qaeda and other jihadists far beyond the scale of Chechen guerrilla activity. A flood of volunteers from a 25-million-strong Islamic community in Russia and foreign Islamic nations-- angry with Russia's major contribution to an Iraq war on Washington's behalf -- could turn all the Russian North Caucasus, predominantly Muslim, into one vast combat zone.
The move could also disrupt Russian society, which has opposed the Iraqi war from the outset, and generate a meaningful challenge to Putin's power. And while the Russian general staff believes it is possible to deploy 40,000 Russian troops, it would definitely put a strain on the Russian army, particularly given its ongoing commitment in Chechnya. Stratfor sources also suggest that some Russian officers would be unhappy with the deployment and might even refuse to go.
Given a move that would be serious high-stakes poker for Putin, why would he do it? Betting on a Bush victory in November, Putin wants Bush to maintain a positive attitude toward Russia in general and Putin in particular during a second term, when Bush would be free to conduct whatever foreign policy he wants to. Also, Putin's mission in life seems to be to irrevocably link post-Communist Russia with the United States -- economically, politically, militarily.
Meanwhile, as long as the Russian people -- who have been grudgingly tolerant of Putin's pro-Western stratagem so far -- can remain patient and relatively undisturbed, the risks in Putin's mind could be worth taking. Someday, if he is slow and prudent with his policies, Putin envisions a tipping point for Russia, when rising consumerism and ties to the West will forever link Moscow's fate with Washington's. His hope may be that sending Russian troops to Iraq would help forge that link.
However, Putin is aware that if he miscalculates the degree to which he can test Russia's patience, having troops in Iraq could cause a huge domestic backlash, cost him his power and return the nation to its anti-American past.
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