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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (33634)	7/17/2004 9:05:24 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 206121

You may recall that before the oil data I raised 25% cash and loaded a short in WFT. Robry's data and the EEI data had me spooked. Robry's data is looking better but we need to see how it appears Monday. Until it changes I think the heating oil and crude factor is so compelling that it will trump the weather and some marginally higher than expected injections. Once I saw the oil data, and some improvement on Robry's data I reloaded and covered. What I found so interesting was Don's comments about the energy sector perhaps having gained some respect, but only a small minority of investors believe in energy. The election is just one more reason to have some cash handy and to be very cautious. I dont see why people think oil prices would go up if the USA was attacked again. I suspect any significant attack in the USA will reduce demand dramatically and boost the risk premium for equities. Demand for jet fuel is quite strong, if people are not driving to the airport and flying they will be home saving. I suspect the auto industry and many others shutdown for 2-3 week turn arounds this year. This explains allot with Robry's data. I also suspect the combined cycles are offsetting much less efficient peakers.

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