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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (16633)	7/17/2004 11:58:14 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Not an unreasonable question to ask, but yes, I think it's coming. This MoP crowd pretty much just follows market expectations, and the consensus is pricing in the increase by over 100%; trendmacro.com I just don't see this Fed, trying to do anything outside that curve, as they are just too sycophantic, and it would send out the wrong "emergency" message. The crackerass 25 bps will come, and it will hardly put even a dent into the inflation breakout. Plus the August releases for July inflation are going to be hot. On the wages withholding numbers, I will have a clean apple to apple comparison on Monday. You have to line up mid-month, because the 15-16th tends to be cutoff for employers to send the withholding taxes in. I will post the numbers then. I'd say it looks about the same, just floating along, no real pop.

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