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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: AC Flyer who wrote (51601)7/18/2004 2:19:02 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
<Take a look at the new generation of small, low cost (~$1+ million) twinjets. These aircraft will revolutionize air travel, offering affordable air taxi service to a vastly increased potential market. I for one can not wait to get my butt out of the flying cattle cars.>

Hi ACF. A couple of years ago I was wondering how small aircraft could be made. I was thinking of little aircraft, with maybe 2 or 4 people lying down in a comfortable tube, taking off on a really short runway. They would be fully automatic, with no crew and no security [blowing oneself up wouldn't be all that much fun and not very useful from a terrorism point of view].

I didn't get into serious calculations because I decided that huge cattle transporters are simply too cheap for long haul to be displaced.

The physics of air resistance and efficiency of power plants means small is expensive and there's no way around that.

People can now avoid cattle-class syndrome with business class, or Gulfstream travel. But the price puts off all but the few who are seriously well-off.

One huge aircraft can have a couple of big engines which run at high efficiency and having drag shared among hundreds instead of a few means fuel costs are much lower.

Small aircraft would be good for short hops [200 km] and they could land and take off on shorter runways. They could land one every 5 seconds with automation [no pilots to mess things up and add to costs]. Loading and unloading would be really fast. Go to airport, swipe credit card, get on little aircraft, shut door, take off. Save an hour or two of mucking around with bigger aircraft.

The key to the economics of short haul would be no crew. Lying down instead of sitting would mean less drag and it would be more comfortable too. I'm thinking of a cabin only 1 metre in diameter.

If people were genetically engineered to be tiny, a LOT of people, say 2,000, could fit into a 20,000 km range aircraft and the smallest short range aircraft would be only 2 metres long and 50cm in diameter. But that'll take a while.

Meanwhile, the current system of charging should be changed. Passengers should be charged by the kilogram, all baggage and self weight included. It's absurd that a 120 kg obese person with 30 kg of luggage pays the same as a 40 kg person with 2 kg of hand-bag. An airline that offers cheap fares per kilogram would attract a LOT of business. People would carry less baggage, meaning more freight could be loaded on and profits increased.

Mqurice
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