Public Likes Edwards, but Race Is Still Close
The New York Times
July 17, 2004
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON and JANET ELDER
WASHINGTON, July 16 - Senator John Edwards is viewed far more
favorably than unfavorably by Americans in the aftermath of his
introduction as Senator John Kerry's running mate, and the intensity
of feeling for Mr. Kerry has deepened, among his backers in the
presidential race, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
But naming Mr. Edwards did not immediately win over any
substantial number of voters for the Democratic ticket, and the campaign
between Mr. Kerry and President Bush remains statistically
deadlocked as Mr. Kerry heads toward the Democratic convention and his best
opportunity to make a strong impression on the country, the poll found.
The poll also found that Mr. Bush's approval ratings were
at low levels for an incumbent at this point in a presidential
campaign and that for the first time a majority
of Americans feel the United States should have stayed out of Iraq.
The results suggested that the country is as deeply divided
as ever, leaving both sides struggling to alter the campaign's basic story line, in
which Mr. Bush is showing clear vulnerabilities but Mr. Kerry
has been unable to exploit them.
Mr. Kerry's greatest opportunity appears to remain Mr. Bush's
handling of Iraq. Fifty-one percent of respondents said the United States
should have stayed out of Iraq, up from 46 percent in April,
May and June. Forty-five percent said taking military action in Iraq was the right
thing to do, down slightly from the past several months.
Sixty-two percent said the war was not worth the loss of American
lives and other costs, a figure that has risen steadily over the past few
months.
Signaling that the White House may be running into trouble in its
effort to portray Mr. Bush as the surer pair of hands when it comes to
national security, the poll suggested that the nation was closely
split over which party would make better decisions when it comes to Iraq.
Forty-five percent said the Democrats were more likely to make
the right decisions about the war and 41 percent said Republicans.
Although the pace and intensity of the campaign have increased
this month, major developments over the past several weeks that could have
helped one side or the other appeared to have limited impact.
While Mr. Kerry's selection of Mr. Edwards did not substantially
alter the race, it corresponded with a deepening of the support for Mr.
Kerry, though that support remained less intense than that for Mr. Bush.
Forty-one percent said they strongly favored Mr. Kerry, up 10
percentage points from last month. Also, the percentage of people
who said they were backing Mr. Kerry because they disliked the other
candidates fell to 27 percent from 37 percent.
Among Mr. Bush's backers, 60 percent said they strongly favored him,
up from 56 percent last month. Eight percent said they supported
him because they disliked the other candidates, down from 11 percent last month.
The poll had some encouraging news for the Democrats when it
came to the matchup between Mr. Edwards and Vice President Dick
Cheney. Although 39 percent of respondents said they had not heard
enough about Mr. Edwards to have an opinion and 13 percent said
they were undecided about him, 35 percent said they had a
favorable opinion and 13 percent an unfavorable opinion.
Since his selection, Republicans have sought to portray Mr. Edwards
as an inexperienced liberal trial lawyer in an effort to offset the appeal and charismatic
speaking style he displayed in the Democratic primaries.
Mr. Cheney was viewed favorably by 28 percent and unfavorably
by 37 percent: a figure that rose nine percentage points since last month.
Mr. Cheney has been more in the news over the last month than he
has often been since taking office. He has vigorously defended the
administration's record on Iraq and terrorism, and he acknowledged
swearing at a senior Democratic senator on the Senate floor.
Mr. Bush's standing in the poll appeared not to be helped much
by the transfer of sovereignty in Iraq. But nor was it hurt by the Senate
Intelligence Committee's conclusion that the prewar intelligence about Iraq was flawed.
The poll found that 45 percent of those surveyed approved of the
job Mr. Bush is doing. That was up slightly from a May poll by CBS News,
when it stood at 41 percent, but it was still below where it stood
at the beginning of the year and below the level generally considered safe
for an incumbent seeking re-election. Forty-eight percent disapproved
of the job Mr. Bush is doing.
Mr. Bush's approval rating on foreign policy stood at 39 percent,
about where it has been for the last three months. Fifty-five percent of
respondents disapproved of the way he is handling foreign policy.
On Mr. Bush's handling of Iraq, 37 percent approved and 58 percent
disapproved, figures that were little changed from polls in May and
June, before the Iraqis were granted self-governance on June 28.
But the president got higher marks for the effort to combat terrorism, with
51 percent expressing approval of the job he is doing.
And a sharp increase this year in the number of people who said things were going
badly in Iraq appears to have leveled off, with 56 percent saying
things are going somewhat or very badly, down from 60 percent this spring.
Signs that the economy has strengthened have helped Mr. Bush's
standing somewhat since the winter, but his approval ratings on his
handling of the economy still remain relatively low. Forty-two percent
of those surveyed approved of his handling of the economy, and 51
percent disapproved.
Asked whether their opinions of Mr. Kerry were favorable,
unfavorable or undecided, 36 percent of registered voters said favorable. That was
up seven percentage points since last month but was roughly
where Mr. Kerry was when he was wrapping up the Democratic nomination in
February. Thirty-three percent said not favorable, and 29 percent
said they were undecided or did not know enough about him.
The Times/CBS News poll, like other recent polls, found the race to be
close, within its margin of error. In a head-to-head matchup, the
Kerry-Edwards ticket was supported by 49 percent of registered voters,
and a Bush-Cheney ticket by 44 percent. In a three-way race, Mr.
Kerry was at 45 percent, Mr. Bush at 42 percent and Ralph Nader at 5 percent.
The nationwide telephone poll was taken from Sunday through
Thursday and surveyed 955 adults, including 823 registered voters. It has a
margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
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