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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (9500)7/19/2004 6:23:27 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
German June Producer Prices Decline on Oil Costs (Update2)
July 19 (Bloomberg) -- German producer prices fell in June for the first month in five as oil costs declined and slumping consumer demand in Europe's largest economy limited room for price increases.

Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools fell 0.1 percent from May, when they rose 0.5 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected unchanged prices, the median of 31 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year ago, prices increased 1.5 percent.

A slowdown in inflation last month, to 1.7 percent from 2 percent, has eased concern oil costs may lead to more lasting price increases and force the European Central Bank to raise credit costs. ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing has said the bank doesn't expect so-called second-round effects as long as companies don't step up hiring.

``Pressure from oil prices eased in June, but one can't sound the all clear yet,'' said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, who had forecast unchanged producer prices. ``The ECB will continue to keep an eye on possible second-round effects.''

The cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil dropped more than 15 percent in June. It has since rebounded more than 14 percent to $38 at the close on Friday in London.

The price of oil products dropped 3.9 percent in June from May, today's report showed. They are still 8.3 percent higher than in June last year.

`Second-Round Effects'
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