Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: BubbaFred who wrote (51631)	7/19/2004 2:52:22 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<<Can you tell me what and how big will this 3G technology will become, and what are its limitations as well as what newer and better technologies are currently under development.>> 3G will not only become big nut will become THE technology. Problem is the time-scale. The infrastructure <<for ordinary phone conversation>> is still not only adequate but one can milk profits from it for a little while possibly all the way to 2010. Keep in mind that it is voice that makes money today. <<I think the new technologies are better in speed as well as higher density.>> The newer technologies can use the air interface to carry data. This will enable you to do computerless Internet and email access. Today we are used to fixed Internet connection using computers. 1. Just two years ago there was a debate between 3G and GSM, and it looks like 3G has the upper hand now. It this correct? The world will still live with the TDMA GSM split even as we enter the wireless data networks. It will converge, but again the time scale. (I'll write a posting giving my views on what this thing is going to be in ten years time.) 2. And do you expect massive consolidations in the wireless telecom sector? It should have happened already. It hasn't because the management of the two parties to be merged will be engaged in an exercise of managing themselves out of work. Hence they don't actively pursue it. Even Marconi is trying to survive on their own. 3. What's Wi-Fi and how does it compete (or does it?) with 3G? I think Wi Fi is limited in its range, and good for a very localized area, say within one office floor. It can eliminate wire connections? It complements 3G? Wi-Fi will not compete with 3G but will complement it. 4. What's "PAS" UTStarcom infrastructure? PAS or DECT or PHS are Wireless Local Loop access WLL or fixed wireless. Using the same amount of spectrum which can be used for data, (3G or CDMA) you can set up a base station and connect the houses, business in its neighborhood. It was supposed to replace the cabling from the Central Office to theses premises. With the advent of pre-paid, cheap GSM terminals and ubiquitous mobile infrastructure it became cost effective to use GSM to connect the masses with telephony rather than create a parallel mobile infrastructure to sell telephony. Thus many people (Africa, Latin America, Asia) will never hear a dial tone. They will only know mobile telephony.

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